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The Trump administration’s tightening of oil restrictions on Cuba is worsening an already fragile energy crisis on the islandcontributing to longer blackoutstransportation shutdownsand the scaling back of schools and workplacesaccording to residents and policy experts.
In HavanaVilmaa university employee who asked to be identified only by her first name for safetysaid she and her colleagues have been suspended from work since Jan. 16 because buses are no longer running regularlyand transportation has become unreliable. Workers were paid for the first monthVilma saidbut as of mid-Februaryshe is now on unpaidindefinite leave.
Vilma said the outages have become a daily realityoften beginning early in the morning and lasting much of the day. Meanwhilefood and other resources are becoming increasingly scarce.
“There are people who don’t even have a plate of food,” Vilma said. “And they don’t have fuel to cook with.”
Her account reflects a broader national strain as Cuba grapples with reduced access to imported oila key component of its already fragile power supply. The U.S. restrictions compound the decadeslong U.S. trade embargo and hinder the country’s recovery from years of economic decline, infrastructure failuresand a steady exodus of working-age residents.
The Trump administration has framed the new escalation as pressure on Cuba’s governmentrolling out a tariff-and-sanctions architecture designed to deter third countries from supplying oil to the island. But the immediate impact is increasingly visible in the rhythms of civilian life.
A pressure campaign aimed at the grid
Michael Bustamantea University of Miami historian and the Emilio Bacardí Moreau Chair in Cuban and Cuban-American Studiessaid the latest push fits a long pattern in U.S.-Cuba policy: restricting resources in the hopes of forcing political concessions or creating the conditions for unrest.
ButBustamante saidthis moment is different because it collides with Cuba’s deeper energy vulnerability after the loss of steady Venezuelan oil flows. For yearsVenezuela supplied Cuba with subsidized crude under a political and economic partnershiphelping the island generate electricity and cushion shortages. As Venezuela’s own crisis deepenedthose shipments became far less reliable. After the January U.S. invasion of Venezuela and abduction of its presidentthe U.S. also seized Venezuelan oil tankerscutting off supplies to Cuba.
“This is about cutting off what makes the island’s electricity grid work or barely work as is,” Bustamente told Prism. “This is an attempt to paralyze the rhythms of everyday life.”
The effects are already visible in the scaling back of essential services. Bustamante said the government has begun limiting activity across public institutions in response to fuel shortages.
“Schoolsuniversities are kind of shutting down or telling people to take classes by distance learning,” he said. But in a country facing prolonged outagesremote learning is often impractical. “If you don’t have electricity to power an internet connectionwhat are we talking about?”
Hospitals are also prioritizing only the most urgent procedureshe saidas the state attempts to ration what fuel remains. International reporting in recent days has described the fuel squeeze as a citywide and nationwide disruption. In HavanaReuters reported that garbage collection has broken down as fuel shortages sideline trucksleaving trash piling up in neighborhoods. Bloomberg similarly described the country’s grid as fragile even before new U.S. actions restricted fuel shipments that had supplied a major share of the crude Cuba needs to keep its aging system running.
“This has been a train wreck for a long time”
Bustamante emphasized that the country’s crisis predates the most recent escalationpointing to years of grid failures and long daily outages. Cuba has experienced repeated large-scale and nationwide blackouts since 2024including major outages tied to failures at key power plants and systemwide fragility.
Vilma described the resulting exhaustion as both physical and psychological. She told Prism that she has been dealing with illness and pain that makes it hard to sleep.
“Everything is getting worse every day,” she said. “Sometimes we have power outages for eight or 10 hours.”
That kind of disruption ripples outward: If the buses don’t runworkers can’t get to their jobs. If electricity is cut for long stretchesfamilies scramble to cook and store food. If fuel is rationedpublic services can slow or stop. Even the diaspora’s strategies to send supplies for survival are becoming harder to sustainBustamante saidas shipping routes and informal supply lines become less reliable.
“This has been a train wreck for a long time,” he said. “This is just ratcheting up that intensity.”
For many Cubansthe present crisis invites comparisons to the Special Period of the 1990swhen the collapse of the Soviet Union triggered severe shortages and economic contraction. Bustamante said the comparison is complicated.
In raw economic termshe notedthe earlier collapse was steeper. Cuba’s GDP fell by roughly a third between 1991 and 1994. The decline in recent years has been smaller by comparison. But he said the current moment may feel more severe because the country never fully recovered from that earlier shock.
“This new nosedive starts off further down,” he said.
He also pointed to deeper inequality and eroded public trust as key differences. Unlike in the early 1990swhen the state still had strong ideological legitimacy among parts of the populationtoday many Cubans have grown up in what he described as a “perpetual crisis.”
“There are two generations of people who’ve been raised in this perpetual crisis,” he said. “The state doesn’t really have much of a claim anymore on a large part of the population’s soul.”
Will desperation spark unrest or more repression?
A central question hovering over Cuba is whether heightened deprivation could trigger another wave of mass protest like the historic July 112021demonstrations and whether the government would respond with the same level of repression that saw about 1,500 protesters arrested.
Bustamante cautioned against predictions. He noted that many people who might have taken to the streets have left the island in recent yearswhile those who remain may fear the consequences after the 2021 crackdown. But he also said desperation can change risk calculations.
He raised another possibility: that Havana could hesitate to respond with maximum force if leaders believe images of violent repression might be used as a pretext for sharper U.S. intervention.
“It’s a risk for them either way,” Bustamente said. “If they’re pushed to a level of desperation where they’ve never been beforecaution might be thrown [aside].”
The worsening situation has also prompted an international response. A new coalition of movementsunionshumanitarian groupsand political figures recently announced plans for the “Nuestra América Flotilla,” a seaborne mission intended to deliver foodmedicineand basic supplies to Cuba.
Organizers say the flotillawhich is expected to set sail next monthis meant to respond to what they describe as acute shortages exacerbated by the tightened U.S. restrictions.
“When governments enforce collective punishmentordinary people have a responsibility to act,” said organizer David Adler in a statement announcing the initiative.
Supporters of the effort include international political figureslabor organizersand activists who say the mission is an act of civilian solidarity aimed at delivering humanitarian aid. U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib also voiced supportcriticizing what she described as policies that “cutting off fuelflightsand critical supplies necessary for survival.”
A divided diasporaand a dangerous kind of certainty
In South FloridaBustamante saidthe mood among Cuban Americans ranges widelyoften shaped by whether families still have loved ones on the island and how directly they feel the suffering.
He described a strain of “anticipation” and even overconfidence in some cornerswhere rhetoric suggests that Cuba’s government is finally nearing collapse. Bustamante also pointed to what he sees as a lack of public debate about what comes after: who would invest in rebuildingwhat conditions might be attachedand whether the Trump administration’s interests would align with democracy and social justice or with control and profit.
Bustamante said that without a negotiated off-ramp or a shift in policythe most likely short-term outcome is more suffering with no clear path forward. If neither government backs downCuba’s crisis could deepen into a prolonged standoff in which ordinary people pay the cost.
And even if this pressure campaign forces changehe warned against triumphalism.
“The better case scenario is that this could be the start of a new beginningone that hopefully might be based on reconciliationon putting Cuban interests firstand not just those of corporate America,” Bustamante said. Buthe addedhe sees more “ugly” scenarios ahead from renewed authoritarian entrenchment to a future defined by U.S. tutelagerather than sovereignty.
Editorial Team:
Sahar FatimaLead Editor
Lara WittTop Editor
Rashmee KumarCopy Editor