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5 futures of infrastructure: What will we build by 2100?

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< data-emotion="wef gbfd2a">.chakra .wef-gbfd2a{object-fit:cover;object-position:cover;width:100%;} Grey concrete road in tunnel with circular pillar and yellow lights in Norway: Infrastructure is both a risk and a lever in the climate transition

Grey concrete road in tunnel with circular pillar and yellow lights in Norway: Infrastructure is both a risk and a lever in the climate transition

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Infrastructure is both a risk and a lever in the climate transition Image: Usplash/Gwenn Klabbers

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Infrastructure is both a risk and a lever in the climate transition.
The future of infrastructure will be shaped by trade-offs between resilienceequity and control.
Proactive thinkinglong-term vision and systemic action are essential and possible.

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To revitalize today’s economy and meet future needs within planetary boundarieswe must develop resilient and sustainable infrastructure.

Existing infrastructurespredominantly built on fossil fuelsare ill-equipped for climate extremes and face material shortages and carbon intensity.

Globallythe construction sector is not on track to decarbonize by 2050.

Some regions are confronting a fossil legacy of infrastructure overbuildingwhich is impossible to maintain or renew. Others still lack basic infrastructure. In all casesinfrastructure failure would be disastrous.

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Infrastructure reflects the centuries-old concept of humankind as the ruler of nature and the world.

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Decision-makers and planners face several pressing strategic issues concerning infrastructure transition to new conditions. The general vulnerability of infrastructure manifests in several ways:

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Delayed adaptation. Critical infrastructure is slow to adapt to climate change. The physical risks to investments and assets are often underestimatedpotentially leading to value losses of up to 50% by 2050. Meanwhilesafe land for building is becoming increasingly scarceprompting a gradual retreat from high-risk areas.
Societal expectations. Society increasingly demands public infrastructure that is transformativeaffordableinclusivehealthy and reliable. Howeverthe commodification of essential services such as waterthe deterioration of railways and motorwaysrising energy prices and heat risks for construction workers undermine civic resilience. While essential infrastructure remains insurablethe costs of the transition risk falling disproportionately on the poor.
Competition for financial resources. The infrastructure investment gap continues to widen as more funding is redirected towards defence and artificial intelligence (AI). Meanwhiledeferred maintenance costs escalate and ageing infrastructure becomes increasingly unsafe.
Strategic materials shortages. Shortages of strategic materials may slow down decarbonization efforts. Every 15 to 25 yearsageing solar panelswind turbines and batteries must be replacedincreasing pressure on critical resources. At the same timethere’s growing tension between the need to reduce the environmental footprint of construction and the demand for more resilient infrastructure to withstand extreme weather and cyberattacks.

The way these questions will be addressed depends on many variables factors. To prepare for the futurefive scenarios for global infrastructure by 2100 can offer insights into potential developments and help set context-specific priorities.

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5 global infrastructure scenarios by 2100

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1. Circular and climate-robust ‘technosphere’

The "technosphere" refers to the total mass of human-made structuressystems and materials – everything from buildings and roads to machines and waste. Its weight now surpasses that of all living organisms on Earthunderscoring the vast material footprint of modern civilization.

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The technosphere encompasses the vast global output of materials generated by human activitiesas well as the associated energy consumption Image: Unsplash/Louis Reed

This scalecombined with tremendous maintenance costs and dwindling resourcesprompts resource-poor and demographically stagnant nations to treat their built environment as a finite stock. Instead of expandingbuildings and infrastructure are reusedrepairedrepurposedelevated and recycled. The era of land take and virgin materials use ends.

In this contextrapid renovation cycles and a dynamic second-hand materials market emerge.

Vernacular architecture – ancient building s indigenous to a specific region or culturelow- and high-tech construction techniques combine with passive design features – those not relying on energy or a machine but depending on physicsfrom arid regions to deliver buildings that withstand heat and floods.

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The thick earthen wallssmall windows and flat roofs of an adobe house in New Mexico is an example of vernacular architecture Image: Unsplash/Patti Black

2. Shared continent-wide mega-infrastructure

A building boom is underway to support the energy and digital transitions. Rapidly growing regions are collaborating on large-scale infrastructure projects to lower costs and speed delivery. Renewable energy is generated where sun and wind are most abundantdistributed through long-distance interconnected grids and submarine cables. These networks link Eastern and Western time zones to balance the energy supply between day and night.

Meanwhilelong-distance water networkscargo sailing fleets and transcontinental railways support efficient resource distribution and low-carbon transportation.

3. Virtual and weaponized infrastructure

In this scenariocorporations dominate datacities and infrastructure. This shift towards private sector control drives deregulated individualized and immersive environmentswith mining expanding into spacethe Arctic and the deep sea.

Spatial and urban planning is AI-driven and design-automatedand construction by robots is the norm. Infrastructure is embedded with sensors and data-collecting materialsfacilitating predictive maintenance and constant surveillance. Meanwhilethe wealthy retreat to artificialgated islands.

There is a four-day working week and new public revenue from data taxation. Howeversociety also becomes vulnerable to power cutscyber-attacksdigital failure or malicious takeover. As demand for energy and critical resources surgesan infrastructure and cyber-defence market rapidly takes shape.

“

To power the infrastructure transition and minimize climate damagegovernments must directly back and pipeline specific vital infrastructure projects while attracting massive private funding.

”

4. Strandedcarbon locked-in infrastructure

Failure to decarbonize and deferred maintenance leads to stranded assets and infrastructure dependent on fossil fuels. The loss of value becomes systemicspreading from infrastructures to pensions and investment fundsworkerssuppliers and social transfer beneficiaries.

Carbon capturestorage and use technologies and geoengineering are promoted as stopgap measures in emissions control.

Howevermounting carbon prices and physical climate damages result in economic losses borne by governments and future generations.

5. Decentralized micro-infrastructure

Transcontinental planning falters without a single energy market functioningleading to localized basic infrastructure management by municipalitiessmall- and medium-sized enterprisescitizen cooperatives and urban neighbourhoods.

Territorial resources and human skills are combined into energy cells or biogas inlandson-grid or off-gridfostering peer-to-peer trading and closed-cycle self-sufficiency.

This approach lacks the scale to support energy-intensive industries or data centres. Depending on common resource-sharing rulessome regions cooperate and flourish. Others turn inwards or enter into resource challenges.

Something has to give

Infrastructure reflects the centuries-old concept of humankind as the ruler of nature and the world. These daysthe call is one for composing with nature and society to preserve the man-made environment. The future will likely see a combination of these scenariosdepending on the extent of the built stockseverity of environmental disruptionsaccessibility and circularity of energy and materialsreliability of AIshifts in demography and urbanization.

Because the world is finitepriority-settingprotection of critical assetsmassive investments in adapting to disruptionstrust between actorsbenefit-sharing and social utilityresources savings and poolingnature regeneration or cost-effective combinations of grey-green- and behavioural solutions are no-regret answers in all scenarios.

New types of infrastructure may emerge: storage of energyseeds and essential goods; emergency response and early warning systems; rewildingbio- and geo-mimicryand low- or no-build solutions. In any eventresources and ecosystems must be saved through constructions forgonedismantledreusedsimplifieddownsizedmutualizedcompensated or centralized.

To power the infrastructure transition and minimize climate damagegovernments must directly back and pipeline specific vital infrastructure projects while attracting massive private funding.

For examplethis can be done through state-aid and public procurement reformstraining programmesde-risking tools such as lower discount rates or stable feed-in tariffsstrategic partnerships and long-term resilience planningfuture funds and strategic intelligence.

The preferred investments should be efficient and effective for long-term climate-defence and provide benefits now and in the future.

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Funding tomorrow’s infrastructure
Building the future: Reducing carbon footprints across the entire infrastructure lifecycle
This is what emerging technologies mean for the future of infrastructure

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Infrastructure

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< data-emotion="wef 1ugksho">.chakra .wef-1ugksho{transition-property:var(--chakra-transition-property-common);transition-duration:var(--chakra-transition-duration-fast);transition-timing-function:var(--chakra-transition-easing-ease-out);cursor:pointer;text-decoration:none;outline:2px solid transparent;outline-offset:2px;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.5rem;letter-spacing:1.3px;text-transform:uppercase;font-weight:700;color:var(--chakra-colors-greyLight);}.chakra .wef-1ugksho:focus-visible,.chakra .wef-1ugksho[data-focus-visible]{box-shadow:var(--chakra-shadows-outline);}.chakra .wef-1ugksho:hover,.chakra .wef-1ugksho[data-hover]{text-decoration:none;}See all

< data-emotion="wef 1fertmg">.chakra .wef-1fertmg{width:100%;max-width:90rem;margin-inline-start:auto;margin-inline-end:auto;padding-inline-start:var(--chakra-space-base);padding-inline-end:var(--chakra-space-base);padding-top:var(--chakra-space-0);padding-bottom:var(--chakra-space-0);}@media screen and (min-width: 56.5rem){.chakra .wef-1fertmg{padding-inline-start:var(--chakra-space-large);padding-inline-end:var(--chakra-space-large);}}@media screen and (min-width: 90rem){.chakra .wef-1fertmg{padding-inline-start:var(--chakra-space-3xl);padding-inline-end:var(--chakra-space-3xl);}}

< data-emotion="wef 18lbtgg">.chakra .wef-18lbtgg{display:grid;grid-gap:var(--chakra-space-space-200);grid-row-gap:var(--chakra-space-base);grid-template-columns:repeat(41fr);width:100%;max-width:90rem;margin-inline-start:auto;margin-inline-end:auto;}@media screen and (min-width: 37.5rem){.chakra .wef-18lbtgg{grid-template-columns:repeat(81fr);}}@media screen and (min-width: 56.5rem){.chakra .wef-18lbtgg{grid-gap:var(--chakra-space-space-300);grid-row-gap:var(--chakra-space-3xl);grid-template-columns:repeat(121fr);}}

< data-emotion="wef qrllub">.chakra .wef-qrllub{grid-column:span 12/span 12;}

< data-emotion="wef sw29ts">.chakra .wef-sw29ts{display:flex;flex-direction:column;border-radius:0px;background:var(--chakra-colors-black);overflow:hidden;}

< data-emotion="wef xnqvtg">.chakra .wef-xnqvtg{margin-bottom:var(--chakra-space-base);position:relative;width:auto;}

< data-emotion="wef 1c0if2w">.chakra .wef-1c0if2w{transition-property:var(--chakra-transition-property-common);transition-duration:var(--chakra-transition-duration-fast);transition-timing-function:var(--chakra-transition-easing-ease-out);cursor:pointer;text-decoration:none;outline:2px solid transparent;outline-offset:2px;color:inherit;display:block;height:100%;width:100%;position:relative;}.chakra .wef-1c0if2w:hover,.chakra .wef-1c0if2w[data-hover]{text-decoration:underline;}.chakra .wef-1c0if2w:focus-visible,.chakra .wef-1c0if2w[data-focus-visible]{box-shadow:var(--chakra-shadows-outline);}

< data-emotion="wef 1kmcw0o">.chakra .wef-1kmcw0o{position:relative;max-width:var(--chakra-sizes-full);min-height:100%;}.chakra .wef-1kmcw0o>*:not(){overflow:hidden;position:absolute;top:var(--chakra-space-0);right:var(--chakra-space-0);bottom:var(--chakra-space-0);left:var(--chakra-space-0);display:flex;justify-content:center;align-items:center;width:100%;height:100%;}.chakra .wef-1kmcw0o>img,.chakra .wef-1kmcw0o>video{object-fit:cover;}.chakra .wef-1kmcw0o::before{height:var(--chakra-sizes-0);content:"";display:block;padding-bottom:56.25%;}

< data-emotion="wef 5sz0t5">.chakra .wef-5sz0t5{position:absolute;left:var(--chakra-space-small);bottom:var(--chakra-space-small);}

< data-emotion="wef 1xnlgsk">.chakra .wef-1xnlgsk{flex:1;justify-content:initial;flex-direction:column;}

< data-emotion="wef 1cj5ood">.chakra .wef-1cj5ood{line-height:var(--chakra-lineHeights-short);font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-large);font-weight:var(--chakra-fontWeights-black);overflow:hidden;text-overflow:ellipsis;margin-bottom:var(--chakra-space-0);color:var(--chakra-colors-white);text-align:left;margin:var(--chakra-space-0);display:-webkit-box;-webkit-line-clamp:4;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;}@media screen and (min-width: 37.5rem){.chakra .wef-1cj5ood{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-largest);}}@media screen and (min-width: 56.5rem){.chakra .wef-1cj5ood{font-size:3rem;}}

How previous energy shocks have turned into opportunities

< data-emotion="wef 8xl60i">.chakra .wef-8xl60i{margin-top:auto;}

< data-emotion="wef jwp324">.chakra .wef-jwp324{margin-top:auto;padding-top:var(--chakra-space-smaller);}@media screen and (min-width: 37.5rem){.chakra .wef-jwp324{padding-top:var(--chakra-space-base);}}

< data-emotion="wef t0m58g">.chakra .wef-t0m58g{line-height:var(--chakra-lineHeights-tall);font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-smallest);font-weight:var(--chakra-fontWeights-bold);margin-top:var(--chakra-space-0);margin-bottom:var(--chakra-space-0);color:var(--chakra-colors-white);}@media screen and (min-width: 37.5rem){.chakra .wef-t0m58g{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-smaller);}}@media screen and (min-width: 56.5rem){.chakra .wef-t0m58g{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-base);}}

Tatsuo Masuda

< data-emotion="wef i054we">.chakra .wef-i054we{line-height:var(--chakra-lineHeights-tall);font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-smallest);font-weight:var(--chakra-fontWeights-normal);margin-top:var(--chakra-space-smallest);margin-bottom:var(--chakra-space-0);color:var(--chakra-colors-greyLight);}@media screen and (min-width: 37.5rem){.chakra .wef-i054we{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-smaller);}}@media screen and (min-width: 56.5rem){.chakra .wef-i054we{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-base);}}

April 242026

< data-emotion="wef l545ti">.chakra .wef-l545ti{position:relative;border-radius:0px;background:var(--chakra-colors-black);overflow:hidden;color:white;}

< data-emotion="wef 70qvj9">.chakra .wef-70qvj9{display:flex;align-items:center;}

< data-emotion="wef 3eu5vo">.chakra .wef-3eu5vo{position:relative;flex-shrink:revert;margin-right:var(--chakra-space-base);align-self:start;flex:0 0 auto;width:86px;}@media screen and (min-width: 56.5rem){.chakra .wef-3eu5vo{margin-right:var(--chakra-space-large);width:114px;}}

< data-emotion="wef gf174d">.chakra .wef-gf174d{position:relative;max-width:var(--chakra-sizes-full);min-height:100%;}.chakra .wef-gf174d>*:not(){overflow:hidden;position:absolute;top:var(--chakra-space-0);right:var(--chakra-space-0);bottom:var(--chakra-space-0);left:var(--chakra-space-0);display:flex;justify-content:center;align-items:center;width:100%;height:100%;}.chakra .wef-gf174d>img,.chakra .wef-gf174d>video{object-fit:cover;}.chakra .wef-gf174d::before{height:var(--chakra-sizes-0);content:"";display:block;padding-bottom:100%;}

< data-emotion="wef 1rb8idd">.chakra .wef-1rb8idd{flex:1 1 calc(100% - 80px - 24px);padding-right:var(--chakra-space-base);width:calc(100% - 80px - 24px);min-width:var(--chakra-sizes-0);}@media screen and (min-width: 56.5rem){.chakra .wef-1rb8idd{padding-right:var(--chakra-space-large);}}

< data-emotion="wef bbeb4l">.chakra .wef-bbeb4l{overflow:hidden;text-overflow:ellipsis;margin-bottom:var(--chakra-space-0);display:-webkit-box;-webkit-line-clamp:2;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;}

< data-emotion="wef 1nqbcyt">.chakra .wef-1nqbcyt{line-height:var(--chakra-lineHeights-short);font-weight:var(--chakra-fontWeights-black);color:var(--chakra-colors-white);font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-smaller);margin:var(--chakra-space-0);}@media screen and (min-width: 37.5rem){.chakra .wef-1nqbcyt{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-large);}}

Middle East war: 6 ways countries are responding to the historic energy shock