The world is warming at a record pacewith unseasonable heat baking nearly every continent on Earth. Aprilthe last month for which statistics are availablemarked the 11th consecutive month the planet has set a new temperature high.
Experts say that is a clear sign the Earth’s climate is rapidly changing. But many believe – or at least say they believe – that climate change is not realrelying on a series of well-trodden myths to make their point.
“Most of the world rightly acknowledges that climate change is real,” says Dechen TseringActing Director of the Climate Change Division at the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). “But in many placesmisinformation is delaying the action that is so vital to countering what is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity.”
This monthdelegates will be meeting in BonnGermany for a key conference on climate change. Ahead of that gatheringhere is a closer look at eight common climate-related myths and why they are simply not true.
Myth #1: Climate change has always happenedso we should not worry about it.
It is true that the planet’s temperature has long fluctuatedwith periods of warming and cooling. But since the last ice age 10,000 years agothe climate has been relatively stablewhich scientists say has been crucial to the development of human civilization.
That stability is now faltering. The Earth is heating up at its fastest rate in at least 2,000 years and is about 1.2°C hotter than it was in pre-industrial times. The last 10 years have been the warmest on recordwith 2023 smashing global temperature records.
Other key climate-related indicators are also spiking. Ocean temperaturessea levels and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses are rising at record rates while sea ice and glaciers are retreating at alarming speeds.
Myth #2: Climate change is a natural process. It has nothing to do with people.
While climate change is a natural process human activity is pushing it into overdrive. A landmark report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)which draws on the research of hundreds of leading climate scientistsfound that humans are responsible for almost all the global warming over the past 200 years.
The vast majority of warming has come from the burning of coaloil and gas. The combustion of these fossil fuels is flooding the atmosphere with greenhouse gaseswhich act like a blanket around the planettrapping heat.
By measuring everything from ice cores to tree ringsscientists have been able to track concentrations of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide levels are at their highest in 2 million yearswhile two other greenhouse gasesmethane and nitrous oxideare at their highest in 800,000 years.
Myth #3: A couple of degrees of warming is not that big of a deal.
Actuallysmall temperature rises can throw the world’s delicate ecosystems into disarraywith dire implications for humans and other living things. The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit average global temperature rise to “well below” 2°Cand preferably to 1.5°Csince pre-industrial times.
Even that half-a-degree swing could make a massive difference. The IPCC found that at 2°C of warmingmore than 2 billion people would regularly be exposed to extreme heat than they would at 1.5°C. The world would also lose twice as many plants and vertebrate species and three times as many insects. In some areascrop yields would decrease by more than halfthreatening food security.
At 1.5°C of warming70 per cent to 90 per cent of coralsthe pillars of many undersea ecosystemswould die. At 2°C of warmingsome 99 per cent would perish. Their disappearance would likely lead to the loss of other marine speciesmany of which are a critical source of protein for coastal communities.
“Every fraction of a degree of warming matters,” says Tsering.
Myth #4: An increase in cold snaps shows climate change is not real.
This statement confuses weather and climatewhich are two different things. Weather is the day-to-day atmospheric conditions in a location and climate is the long-term weather conditions in a region. Sothere could still be a cold snap while the general trend for the planet is warming.
Some experts also believe climate change could lead to longer and more intense cold in some places due to changes in wind patterns and other atmospheric factors. One much-publicized paper found the rapid warming of the Arctic may have disrupted the swirling mass of cold air above the North Pole in 2021. This unleashed sub-zero temperatures as far south as Texas in the United Statescausing billions of dollars in damages.
Myth #5: Scientists disagree on the cause of climate change.
A 2021 study revealed that 99 per cent of peer-reviewed scientific literature found that climate change was human-induced. That was in line with a widely read study from 2013which found 97 per cent of peer-reviewed papers that examined the causes of climate change said it was human-caused.
“The idea that there is no consensus is used by climate deniers to muddy the waters and sow the seeds of doubt,” says Tsering. “But the scientific community agrees: the global warming we are facing is not natural. It is caused by humans.”
Myth #6: It is too late to avert a climate catastropheso we might as well keep burning fossil fuels.
While the situation is direthere is still a narrow window for humanity to avoid the worst of climate change.
UNEP’s latest Emissions Gap Report found that cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 42 per cent by 2030the world could limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels.
A little math reveals that to reach that targetthe world must reduce its annual emissions by 22 billion tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent in less than seven years. That might seem like a lot. But by ramping up financing and focusing on low-carbon development in key transportagriculture and forestrythe world can get there.
“There is no question the task ahead of us is massive,” Tsering says. “But we have the solutions we need to reduce emissions today and there is an opportunity to raise ambition in the new round of national climate action plans.”
Myth #7: Climate models are unreliable.
Climate skeptics have long argued that the computer models used to project climate change are unreliable at best and completely inaccurate at worst.
But the IPCCthe world’s leading scientific authority on climate changesays that over decades of developmentthese models have consistently provided “a robust and unambiguous picture” of planetary warming.
Meanwhilea 2020 study by the University of California showed that global warming models were largely accurate. The study looked at 17 models that were generated between 1970 and 2007 and found 14 of them closely matched observations.
Myth #8: We do not need to worry about lowering greenhouse gas emissions. Humanity is inventive; we can just adapt to climate change.
Some countries and communities can adapt to rising temperatureslower precipitation and the other impacts of climate change. But many cannot.
The world’s developing countries collectively need between US$215 billion and US$387 billion per year to adapt to climate changeyet only have access to a fraction of that totalfound UNEP’s latest Adaptation Gap Report. Even wealthy nations will struggle to afford the cost of adaptationwhich in some cases will require radical measuressuch as displacing vulnerable communitiesrelocating vital infrastructure or changing staple foods.
In many placespeople are already facing hard limits on how much they can adapt. Small island developing statesfor examplecan only do so much to hold back the rising seas that threaten their existence.
Without significant action to lower greenhouse gas emissionscommunities will reach these hard limits faster and begin to suffer irreparable damage from climate changesay experts.
The Sectoral Solution to the climate crisis
UNEP is at the forefront of supporting the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperature rise well below 2°Cand aiming for 1.5°Ccompared to pre-industrial levels. To do thisUNEP has developed the Sectoral Solutiona roadmap to reducing emissions across sectors in line with the Paris Agreement commitments and in pursuit of climate stability. The six sectors identified are: energy; industry; agriculture and food; forests and land use; transport; and buildings and cities.
