Pittsburgh @
TennesseePlayoff Round 2:
The redemption road rises into the highlands this week.� Beyond doubtthe Titans figure to be the Steelers� best opposition sincewellGame 10 when these teams met at the same venue.�
The Steelers have dropped (5) so far this season andof thosethe Titans provided their most severe whipping.� The Pat and Raider games were stunningly awful but it was possible to lay that off to poor preparation; take the usual opening debacleadd in Coach Cowher�s remarkable obtuseness in the six days between Games 1 and 2 andwellthere you go.� The Steelers were in the Saints gamekind ofand as for Houstonwell, that was more or less the NFL�s Haley�s Comet.
In Tennessee thoughthe Steelers were beaten up front on both sides of the ball.� The O-line was utterly dominated andwhile it is true that the Front 7 was handicapped by Coach Lewis�s then reflexive reliance on the dime and the damned dime lineit is equally true that the playmakers (PorterGildon and Bell) eachat various pointsallowed McNair to slip out of tackles.� All in allthe Titans put a viciousunrelenting beating on the Steelersone made far worse by everyone�s post-game concern for Tommy Maddox.�
Tommy is back in the saddle andgiven that the Steelers have scored (30) or more in 3 of their past 4 gamesI believe we now can be assured that Maddox can play outsideeven in inclement weather.� CertainlyPittsburgh�s hopes to advance rest entirely with their offense sincelast weekwe saw that Coach Lewis�s D-side charges have no better clue in dealing with the spread now than was true 15 or 16 games before.� Factor in the fact that Logantheir only competent safetyis gone and that Scott may not be back orif he ismay be unable to tackle effectively andwellthere you go again.� The defense has allowed (30) points or more in 7 of 17 games so far; off thatyou better believe that the Titans will spread the field; you�ve got to believe that the Steelers won�t deal and soinevitablyyou must conclude thatto win(5) TD will be the bare minimum.� Given thatlet�s turn first to the Titan D-side:
- The Titans run a 46 old- Bears type defense as their base.� In generalthis is an up-closehighly aggressivedownhill scheme originally designed to counter Gibbs-balla power-running game and vertical passing attack.� It follows that passing on running downs and running out of pass formations is the way to go.
- Tennessee totaled (40) sacks; of thosetheir D-line had (31).� LDE Kevin Carter led the way with (10) sacksRDE Carlos Hall had (8).� RDE Jevon Kearse had (2) in limited late season action.� The Titans� 4-man DT rotation collected (9)while none of the four had great individual statsall are solid players and the Titans DT depth will factor in this game.�� Starting LDT John Thornton is a solid pluggerRDT Henry Ford plays with energy butat this pointhas limited endurance and LDT Robarie Smith is a slightly undersized pass down player.� Starting RDT Albert Haynesworth is the weak link; this 1st round rookie lacks strength andat 6�-6�has pad level issues.� Presuming Kearse is healthyon passing situations we can expect to see Carter move inside to pair with Smith at DT with Hall and Kearse at DE.� Againthat�s the time to run the ball.
- ROLB Keith Bullock led the Titans with (127) tackles including (10.5) stuffs.� Bullock is the Titans primary coverage backer; as suchhe is equivalent to Porter.� However, the Titans Front 4 pressure doesn�t require Bullock to rush; in contrast, it�s not at all clear that the Steelers have compensated effectively for dropping Porter off. LOLB Peter Sirmon was a find in the 4th round in 2000; this man was second on the team to Bullock with (93) T.� MLB Randall Godfrey has been hampered with injuries and is now first off the field in passing situations.�
- RCB Samari Rolle and LCB Andre Dyson are swift but small.� It�s reasonable to expect both will need help against either Plax or Hines.� Between themthese CB have defended (27) balls(6) less than Scott and DW; these tandems were even with (5) picks each.
- Rookie SS Tank Williams is effective in closeless so in space.� FS Lance Schulters is a playmaker; a former Pro Bowler at the position and FA this winter (as was Rod Woodson), Schulters posted (6) INT(11) PD and (84) T.
- Nickel Donald Mitchell is another small guy; he had (6) PD against (49) T and just (1) INT.� That PD/T ratio suggests that Mitchell can be abused.
Keys
- Do unto others�? �The Steelers� defense has struggled against the spread; at the same timetheir offense does have the personnel to win all WR vs. DB battles from 1 thru 4.� Accepting that they�ll need plenty of scoresit seems a no-brainer to go spread, no-huddle early and often.� Howeverthe Titan D-line brings most of the pressure that team exerts; that contrasts with the Steelers whovariouslydrop or sit their most dangerous rushers (Porter and Bell) in package situations.� Bottom line: the Titans can still pressure out of their dime with their D-lineas the Steelers cannot.��
It�s worth noting that the Titans have the same basic problem on the D-sideas does Pittsburgh.� That istheir Front 7 is stout but their package D-backs are suspect and their package D-linemen are one-dimensional.� Consider that Randall Godfrey is a better football player than Donald Mitchell; Peter Sirmon is a better football player than dime back Rich Coady.� Add to that the fact that the base DTThornton and Fordare strong run defenders but their rush DTCarter and Smithare not and it is evident that the Steelers figure to be more effectively balanced out of the spread than the base. In essence, the spread may force the Titans to field lesser players at up to (4) positions; that�ll workwe�ve seen the inverse here all year long.� Of coursethe gamble is that the Steeler OT can keep Kearse and Hall off T-Max.� This may require a quantity of 3-wide2-RB sets rather than 4-wide throughout.
- Take care of Tommy:� Often in the old Bears� setD-linemen cover-up each of the OL interior three.� The Titans did quite a lot of that last time and generated consistent interior pressure.� Kendall Simmons was tooled in that gamenearly as badly as last Sunday.� Throughout the year, Simmons has played effectively against speed tackles like Warren Sapp but often has been out-muscled by power players like Gerard Warren or John Parella.� In contrastKeydrick Vincent defeated the powerful Marcus Stroud in Jagland.� It�s worth noting that two factors contributed to the Steelers late move Sunday.� One obviously was the spreadno-huddle; the second was Vincent in for Simmons.� This weekVincent may be the better choiceespecially against power players like John Thornton and Henry Ford.
It is absolutely essential that T-Max get through and into the 4th quarter Saturday.� Much has made of the fact that his QB rating in Tennessee was a miserable 44.6.� True enough but that was thru only three quarters.� What do you suppose his rating was it at that point against Baltimore in Game 16or against Cleveland last week?� In playoff 1Maddox ended at 89.6 or so; you�ve got to believe that his 4th quarter play Sunday pumped that rating up considerably.� Three 4th quarter wins in (13) games says it all; Maddox is the Steelers� bestpossibly solehope to advance.��
- Change it up:� As abovethrow on early downs against the Titan base and run on the packages.� It is worth noting that the Titans finished 2nd against the run this yearjust 3.1 YPG behind the Steelers.� However both teams allowed a very mediocre 3.8 YPC; we�ve seen here that most of that has come against the Steeler dime; this is highly likely to be true down South too.� Furtherwhile the Steeler pass defense leaves much to be desiredthe fact is that Pittsburgh finished ahead of the Titans in that category.� The Steelers allowed 216.3 YPG at 6.53 YPA; the Titans allowed 221.3 YPG at 6.68 YPA.� While the Titan Front 4 is highly respectabletheir D-backs can be had; slow that rush and (35) points becomes a real possibility.
With the return of Kearsethe Titans are at full strength on the D-side.� That is not true of their offense; #2 WR Kevin Dyson is on the IR andpossiblythe left side of their O-line will be impaired.�� LOG Zach Pillar went out in game 13; LOT Brad Hopkins went down the following week.� Given the Steelers� D-side injuriesthe continuing absence of Pillar and Hopkins would be a leveling factor.� It is worth noting thatwith their O-line left downthe Titans passed for just (379) yards in their last three games.� Then againin three games prior to meeting the Steelers last timethe Titans had just (406) through the air; they got (257) against the B&G.� Personnel-wise:
- LOT Brad Hopkins is a solid veterangive or takeat Gandy�s level.� Hop�s backupJason Mathews, is weak and smallby NFL standards.� ROT Fred Miller is just a guy.
- LOG Zach Pillar is one of the stronger men in the NFL; he is an excellent drive blocker andas such, would entirely outclass Baileywhen that man is in as part of the dime line.� His backupTom Ackermanis probably the worst O-linemen on either team�s roster.� OC Gennaro DiNapoli is undersized at just #287; this is a battle the Steelers will winso long as Hampton is in the game.� ROG Benji Olsen is a ferocious short area brawler.� In general, the Titans get good push inside while their OT are finesse type players.
- The Titans have a receiving TE in Frank Wychek and a blocker in Erron Kinney; Wychek was injured early and is getting beyond his prime but still had (40) receptions andas we�ve seenmost TE can do business against the Steelers.� Kinney had just (13) receptions.�
- The Titans can field (3) competent WR.� Derrick Mason is an excellent player who had (79) catches for (1012) yards; fortunatelyMason had no return duties this seasonas he was much more a game breaker in that role than as a #1 WR.� 2nd year players Drew Bennett and Justin McCareins had (33) and (19) receptions respectively.� That�s not great but remember that the Steelers made the Falcon duo of Jefferson and Finnerman look like Rice and Tayloror Spike and Hines.� These young Titan WR are big guys, 6�-5� and 6�-3� respectively; both can get deep as evidence by their catch averages of (14.5) and (15.8).� McCareins had his long gain (55) over Chad Scott in Game 10.�� All in allthis group features (2) big guys and (1) smallnone with blazing speed.� That sounds like the Bucs andcertainlythey didn�t get much done; then againSteve McNair was an MVP candidate while Shaun King, beyond terrible against the B&Gcertainly was not.�
- It used to be thatto beat the Titansyou had to stop Eddie George.� That hasn�t been true for a couple seasons now; sureyou�ve got to stop the run but time and toe problems havepretty muchstopped Eddie.� George came into Game 10 averaging 3.4 YPC and that is exactly where he finished the season; no RB in the top 33 had a lower YPC.� Robert Holcombe has become the Titans 3rd down back andrunning mainly out of pass formationsresponded with a 5.1 YPC mark.� Rookie John Simon has factored lately as a slot back; this un-drafted rookie had (16) receptions and (3) TD in that role; he had (1) TD in (9) rushes.
- Steve McNair is the whole deal for the Titans.� McNair�s air numbers are good but not overwhelming; howeverwe saw last time that numbers don�t tell the story with this player. McNair does what it takes to winnothing more but only rarely anything less.� Consider that in (6) games this yearAir had less than (150) yards passing yet in (3) of those his QB rating was 92.4 or better.� More to the pointthe Titans were 5-1 in those gameslosing to Cleveland in OT but beating Houston (2x)Indy, New England and Jacksonville.
In contrastthe Titans are 1-1 in games where McNair threw for more than (300) yards1-2 in games where he had more than (40) attempts and just 3-3 in their highest passing yardage games.� Of coursemost of that came early in the year; at that timeTennessee couldn�t run the ball at all (shades of ��01).� Beyond thatthey had trouble protecting their QB; beyond thatthey were playing from behind throughout.
It�s what it always ispressure and turnovers. �The Titans have allowed just (21) sacks this year; they�ve given 3 or more twice.� They are 0-2 in those contests.� Steve McNair threw (15) INT this year; (10) came in just (3) games and the Titans are 0-3 in those tilts.� In factMcNair has thrown a pick in just (7) games this year; the Titans are 3-4 in those games.
Key:
- Tim Lewis and the dime:� Like any other teamthe Titans get a huge advantage when the Steelers go dime.� It is not necessary to have (4) quality WR to spread the Steelersas Cleveland did andas was suggested here in Week 8 in Review would be the Browns� strategy for Game 8let alone the playoffs a couple months later.� Oakland spread it out with (3) WRGarner or Kirby and any TE; the Pats often had (3) WR and (2) TE.� Steve McNair ran the spread almost exclusively at Alcorn and has run it productively in the NFL too.� In my opinionTennessee will spread the field simply to force Lewis to implement his (doomed) packagewhether they use (3) WR and Wychek or (2) WRWychekGeorge and/or Simon is incidental.� Whenever the dime has come on (whether on 3rd down or in the prevent or all day long)the Steelers have been helpless against the passfrom Game 1 through Game 17.� Oftenas against Oakland in Game 2 and Tennessee in Game 10they�ve failed to stop the run in that pack too.� Consider this report on the last Titan v. Steeler contestfrom Week 11 in Review:
�On the gamethe Titans
were 40/121 running the ballfactor out (3) McNair kneel-downs at the end and
they were 37/124 or 3.35 YPC.� On third
downagainst the Steeler dime linethe Titans rushed 10/55 or 5.5 YPC
including (1) TD and (6) conversions.� Eddie
George was 5/28 on 3rd down and 24/51 for the rest of the game.�
Why?� Wellmaybe because Casey Hampton is
typically in the game on the early downs but rarely in the 3rd down
pack.� The nut-cutting play in this game
came early in the 2nd quarter whenfacing 3rd and 10
from their own 9the Titans sent George up the gut for (11) and a 1st
down.� That play initiated their 91-yard
TD drive; that drive was completed whenon a 3rd and goalthe
Titans sent George up the gut for a 4-yard TD.�
AgainHampton was not in the game; ratherthe Steelers had 6DB on to
defend (14) yards (4 on the field and a 10-yard EZ). Absolute idiocy.
The dime blows (and not in
a good way) against the run and apparently is less effective against the pass
than is the Steeler base.� On the game,
McNair was 18/33 for 257 or 7.8YPA.� On
third downMcNair was 7/9 for 113 or 12.55 YPA; on other downs he was 11/24
for 144 or 6.0 YPA.� That�s about a 46%
completion average on 1st and 2nd vs. 77% on 3rd.� Worsethe big pass for 55 over Scott came
on 3rd down too.�
That is all; the Steeler base Front 7 spent their game in Cleveland�s backfield; for the most partthat�s been their residence sinceat leastthe Houston game.� Against Clevelandas for most of the seasonthe Steeler dime Front 4 spent their time stymied on the LOS.� No pressureno hope especially considering that the dime this week (shorn of Logan and possibly Scott) will featureat mostthree DB with any coverage skills.� Bring the dime and the Steelers will be playing 7 (orwith Scott8) on 11 against the pass.�
Considering that 2 or 3 of the Titan receivers will be RB or TEthe DC should consider keeping his dime in his trou.� The Steeler LB corps is at least as good a match-up for TE and RB as are their safeties.� In factthat LB group is the strongest unitand the safeties the weakeston the D-side.� So far this seasonCoach Lewis has tried the rest; it might be time for him to go with his best.��
Summary:
On defensethe Steelers choice is simple; live or die with the blitz orfor surebleed out from the holes in their inept zone coverage.� On offenseit�s a bit different; on the one handyou�d like to control the clock so to keep the defense off the field buton the otherthat no-huddle certainly can put up the numbers.� Considering that the Titan run-d rivals their ownit seems apparent that the Steelers can�t use any power running to control the clock.� That so, it figures to be spread on spread with scoring into the WNBA range.� Welcome to hardnosed Arena Football outdoors.�