St. Michael's will win 3rd straight 3A title; Los AlamosTaos will make it to 4A semifinals

Now that everybody across the state has had a couple of days to digest — and vent about — the state football playoff seedingswe can all move on with life and enjoy the playoffsright?

Wellas with everythingdon’t look at social media.

If you do thatyou’ll see that people around the state haven’t let go of how teams were seeded (don’t wave a Los Alamos flag in Roswell or Lovington this week)how unfair it was for district champions to play in the first round (some trolls on X had it in for the Albuquerque Journal’s esteemed prep sports writer James Yodicedespite him having no say in the process) or why we need to have 1-9 teams in the playoffs (HiDeming Wildcats!).

Soapparentlywe need more fodder for prep football fans to feed their rage.

If you’re thirsting for baityou’ve come to the right place. Let’s throw some gasoline on the fire and let’s see what happens. Just remember: You chose to read thisso burn as slowly or quickly as you want.

St. Michael’s will win a third straight state title — barring a major injury: The Horsemen are clearly the best team in 3Aand that’s despite dealing with injuries galore throughout the season. People might argue it’s easy to coach talentbut St. Michael’s head coach Joey Fernandez did a masterful job navigating injuries to his offensive line and linebacker Pete Johnson.

The Horsementhoughwill go as far as quarterback Kamal Stith can carry them. YesIsaiah Dominguez is a speedydangerous running backwhile receivers Brayden Hollis and Ryan Hunt are a matchup nightmare. But Stith makes this team go. If he gets hurt ...

Let’s not think about that. Fernandez surely isn’t.

Los Alamos will make it to the 4A semifinals: OKsouthern coaches. Have at it. The gauntlet has been thrown. The Hilltoppers definitely benefited from their 10-0 record and probably got some help in the coaches’ input metric the New Mexico Activities Association uses for seeding and selection. Stillit wasn’t like Los Alamos wasn’t going to be a top-5 seed anyway.

But a 3-seed is the difference between playing the Capital-Anthony Gadsden winner and having to travel to Roswell to take on Goddard in a 4-5 matchup. And if the Jaguars upset the Panthers (which isn’t very likely)it would pave the way for the Hilltoppers to get to the semifinals.

And if Gadsden wins? Wellpeople will point to the 43-14 beating of Los Alamos in last year’s quarterfinal without realizing the Panthers scored 22 points in the fourth quarterthanks to a pair of interceptions to break open a 21-14 game. The rematch will be a lot closer than many think.

Taos will get to the 4A semifinals: Just like last yearthe fourth-seeded Tigers come into the playoffs hotter than a firecracker. They are on a five-game winning streakand the defense has allowed just 41 points in that span — and 28 came in a 30-28 slobberknocker over Grants. The difference is the lesson learned from last year.

Española dominated Taos in a 28-0 shutout in the 4A quarterfinals last year. That sour taste is enough to keep the Tigers locked in and focused for either Valencia or Albuquerque Academy. It helps when senior Evan Salazar is playing some of his best ball at the right time (159 yards of total offense per game over the last five games).

Capital will not get mercy-ruled by Gadsden: The goal set by Jaguars head John Michael Salazar for his team was to get to the playoffs. Mission accomplishedeven if the Jaguars received some help in the form of a forfeit. Capital showed it is capable of playing just about anybody in its districtso don’t be surprised if they make the Panthers sweat for a half — maybe even longer.

Either waySalazar will make good on his boast after a 41-7 loss to Los Alamos that his team would not get 50-pointed the rest of the season. OKit was just for district playbut let’s step out on that postseason ledge.

Regardless of this weekend’s outcomethe game is just the appetizer for 2026when Capital should consider itself a district contender — whether it be in 1-5A or any other district. With the bulk of this team being sophomores and freshmenthe Jaguars are set to be a good team for the next few years.

Pojoaque can make it to the 4A semifinals — if it stays disciplined: Pojoaque showed it has the talent to compete in Class 3Aand 4A if it moves up a class next year. But what the Elks haven’t shown is the discipline that most good teams have. Whether it’s a lack of execution on offense and defenseill-timed penalties or poor decision-makingthe Elks have hurt themselves in key moments.

Chances are high that New Mexico Military Institute will grace Jacona Field as Pojoaque’s opponent in the quarterfinals. The Colts are battle-testedhaving made it to the 3A semifinals in each of the last two seasons. With this being the Elks’ first taste of postseason play in a decade and their first-ever home playoff gamethey need to demonstrate that the moment is not too big for them.

And execution is paramount.

Yeahit probably means a semifinal matchup against St. Michael’sbut it’s the matchup they should crave. And yesLas Vegas Robertson fansthat means the Cardinals probably don’t get past the Horsemen in a 3A quarterfinal rematch.

I’ve been wrong beforeand I’m sure you’ll keep the receipts if it happens.

But you’ll just be one of manybecause people seem to take this stuff very seriously.

Too seriouslyif you think about it.

Contact James Barron at [email protected].