FY 2025 ridership expansion and fiscal recovery

Septa9739 · Dec 72024

With the release of the October MPRthe 2025 fiscal year is well underway. Last year Amtrak (on average) reached full ridership recovery compared to the twelve months before COVID. With that benchmark exceededthis year I will being comparing data to last year. This requires a change in reporting. Most routes show ridership between 96% and 104% of 2024 levelsso I will report monthly winners (above 105%) and losers (below 95%). The routes that haven’t hit pre-COVID ridership are closeor are known problems (read AcelaHiawathaKeystoneCalifornia…). Otherwise the report is pretty good on the whole. The Northeast Regional had a 1,000,000 passenger month (I believe it’s first ever) and drug the NECSL to beat 2024. The SSSL had a big surprise: all four Virginia services lost ridership compared to 12 months ago. Maybe there is a ceiling after all. The LDSL exceeded the October FY 2020 (CY 2019) ridership level. Notable the Auto Train lost ridership as its COVID boom likely subsides. With that:
Winners

Northeast Regional 1,065,400 (108%)
Vermonter 11,500 (108%)
Keystone 113,200 (105%)
Empire South 131,400 (114%)
Pacific Surfliner 172,600 (106%)
Cascades 89,300 (121%)
Capitol Corridor 97,900 (106%)
Missouri River Runner 19,600 (108%)
Pennsylvanian 22,400 (115%)
Pere Marquette 7,800 (108%)
Piedmont 39,300 (111%)
Cardinal 9,600 (110%)
Capitol Limited 14,500 (137%)
California Zephyr 29,100 (109%)
Texas Eagle 29,500 (106%)
Sunset Limited 8,200 (121%)
Coast Starlight 31,200 (116%)
Palmetto 35,300 (105%)

Losers:

Downeaster 52,100 (95%)
Springfield Shuttle 48,200 (85%)
Hiawatha 53,500 (88%) Attribute to Borealis
Wolverine 37,100 (93%)
Adirondack 8,400 (92%) Continual issues
Roanoke 30,800 (93%)
Richmond 12,000 (94%)
Silver Star 27,500 (86%)
Silver Meteor 22,200 (94%)
Auto Train 17,700 (86%)

Finallya note on revenue. The operating loss was $16,100,000. This is not greatbut about $25,000,000 better than expected. In FY 2020the year Amtrak would have made moneyOctober was about $23,000,000 in the black. October is one of the strongest ridership months of the yearso we should expect losses to increase from here. Long Distance operating ratios are slowly crossing 50% and are looking more normal in the NEC (200%ish Acela and 135ish on the NER). Improvement was made on both revenue and expenses.

ryanwc · Dec 72024

Virginia down compared to 12 “years” ago or 12 months ago?

Septa9739 · Dec 72024

ryanwc said:
Virginia down compared to 12 “years” ago or 12 months ago?

Good catch. Corrected.

ryanwc · Dec 72024

I don’t have much to say except that I appreciate this summary.

Bostontoallpoints · Dec 92024

Septa9739 said:
With the release of the October MPRthe 2025 fiscal year is well underway. Last year Amtrak (on average) reached full ridership recovery compared to the twelve months before COVID. With that benchmark exceededthis year I will being comparing data to last year. This requires a change in reporting. Most routes show ridership between 96% and 104% of 2024 levelsso I will report monthly winners (above 105%) and losers (below 95%). The routes that haven’t hit pre-COVID ridership are closeor are known problems (read AcelaHiawathaKeystoneCalifornia…). Otherwise the report is pretty good on the whole. The Northeast Regional had a 1,000,000 passenger month (I believe it’s first ever) and drug the NECSL to beat 2024. The SSSL had a big surprise: all four Virginia services lost ridership compared to 12 months ago. Maybe there is a ceiling after all. The LDSL exceeded the October FY 2020 (CY 2019) ridership level. Notable the Auto Train lost ridership as its COVID boom likely subsides. With that:
Winners

Northeast Regional 1,065,400 (108%)

Vermonter 11,500 (108%)

Keystone 113,200 (105%)

Empire South 131,400 (114%)

Pacific Surfliner 172,600 (106%)

Cascades 89,300 (121%)

Capitol Corridor 97,900 (106%)

Missouri River Runner 19,600 (108%)

Pennsylvanian 22,400 (115%)

Pere Marquette 7,800 (108%)

Piedmont 39,300 (111%)

Cardinal 9,600 (110%)

Capitol Limited 14,500 (137%)

California Zephyr 29,100 (109%)

Texas Eagle 29,500 (106%)

Sunset Limited 8,200 (121%)

Coast Starlight 31,200 (116%)

Palmetto 35,300 (105%)

Losers:

Downeaster 52,100 (95%)

Springfield Shuttle 48,200 (85%)

Hiawatha 53,500 (88%) Attribute to Borealis

Wolverine 37,100 (93%)

Adirondack 8,400 (92%) Continual issues

Roanoke 30,800 (93%)

Richmond 12,000 (94%)

Silver Star 27,500 (86%)

Silver Meteor 22,200 (94%)

Auto Train 17,700 (86%)

Finallya note on revenue. The operating loss was $16,100,000. This is not greatbut about $25,000,000 better than expected. In FY 2020the year Amtrak would have made moneyOctober was about $23,000,000 in the black. October is one of the strongest ridership months of the yearso we should expect losses to increase from here. Long Distance operating ratios are slowly crossing 50% and are looking more normal in the NEC (200%ish Acela and 135ish on the NER). Improvement was made on both revenue and expenses.

Interesting fact about the Autotrain is that this is the first month it ran in the red this year albeit only a $100,000 lost. Also the Downeaster still made money even with the loss in passengers. The Springfield shuttle is also a big money loser$1.9 million loss for the month of October.

daybeers · Dec 92024

Isn't that not accounting for state subsidies?

Septa9739 · Dec 92024

The numbers reported in the report include state subsidies.

Sometimes Amtrak seems to not bill appropriately. Most SSSL trains will run a narrow loss to Amtrak by the end of the year.

Bostontoallpoints · Dec 102024

daybeers said:
Isn't that not accounting for state subsidies?

That loss for the Springfield shuttle includes state subsidies. What is also interesting is that Amtrak showed a $16.7 million loss for October overall while the State Supported routes had a loss of $14.9 million. I have stated in the past that all state supported routes should at least show a "break even" on Amtrak's books. Some state supported Amtrak routes do "break even" or turn a profit but many are perennial loss leaders. The Springfield shuttle has been one of the worseChicago- St LouisIllinois ZephyrSan Joaquins and Heartland flyer are right behind. Amtrak needs to re-work these state contracts.

Septa9739 said:
The numbers reported in the report include state subsidies.

Sometimes Amtrak seems to not bill appropriately. Most SSSL trains will run a narrow loss to Amtrak by the end of the year.

State Supported Amtrak routes lost $234.4 million in total for fiscal year 2024. Only the Berkshire Flyer broke even. The next closest route to break even was the Ethan Allen Express at a $800K loss for the year. The Keystone Service was the biggest lost leader at $41 million for the 2024 year.

Septa9739 · Dec 102024

Bostontoallpoints said:
State Supported Amtrak routes lost $234.4 million in total for fiscal year 2024. Only the Berkshire Flyer broke even. The next closest route to break even was the Ethan Allen Express at a $800K loss for the year. The Keystone Service was the biggest lost leader at $41 million for the 2024 year.

YeahI don’t know what the deal is with the keystone. The loss is down about $25,000,000 from last year. Last year’s loss was larger than the entire operating expense in 2019running the same service levels. The progress this year was about $3,000,000 dollars revenue $22,000,000 dollars expense. @Acela150 mentioned in the past that there were operational issues like Philly conductors having to overnight in Harrisburg (which I would say is an Amtrak expense). Maybe he has more or better infobut my suspicion is that Amtrak was somehow funneling operating money to capital work on the linebecause expenses climbed sharplythen decreased sharply.

Acela150 · Dec 102024

The biggest issue with the Keystones was the trackwork. Cutting the midday trains made a dent in the number of riders.

lordsigma · Dec 102024

Bostontoallpoints said:
That loss for the Springfield shuttle includes state subsidies. What is also interesting is that Amtrak showed a $16.7 million loss for October overall while the State Supported routes had a loss of $14.9 million.

This is an often misunderstood concept. PRIIA 209 does not entirely place all of Amtrak’s costs on the state. It is a State-Federal cost sharing program. State subsidies are included in revenue. The loss on the state supported business line as a whole is covered by Federal subsidies - specifically from the National Network account.

Bernie · Dec 112024

Is the Keystone subsidized in a way that just accounts for the Philadelphia-Harrisburg segmentor the New York segment as well? I've noticed that Keystone trains are generally cheaper than NE Regional trains between NY and PHL (and fastertoo).

lordsigma · Dec 112024

Bernie said:
Is the Keystone subsidized in a way that just accounts for the Philadelphia-Harrisburg segmentor the New York segment as well? I've noticed that Keystone trains are generally cheaper than NE Regional trains between NY and PHL (and fastertoo).

I think it’s just Philly - Harrisburg. I believe on the books if you ride NYP - PHL on a Keystone it’s credited as a Northeast Regional trip. Also if your travel on a Keystone train includes travel on the NEC north of Philly the ticket becomes a reserved seat. Trips within the Philly - Harrisburg Keystone corridor are normally unreserved seats.

Another odd ball thing with the Keystone line as well as the Springfield line is that they are considered part of the NEC as far as the Infrastructure but part of the National Network (state supported business line) as far as operations. So the money for work on those two lines on the Biden infrastructure bill comes from the NEC slicebut any operational subsidies would come from the National Network.

Septa9739 · Dec 112024

For all SSSL trains that use the NECthe trip is credited to the NEC if the trip originates and terminates on the NEC. If it touches an off NEC segment it goes to the State supported train. The fare difference is an incentive for PHL-NYP passengers to use the Keystone and keep seats available for passengers south of WAS.

Bostontoallpoints · Dec 112024

Tom C said:
This is an often misunderstood concept. PRIIA 209 does not entirely place all of Amtrak’s costs on the state. It is a State-Federal cost sharing program. State subsidies are included in revenue. The loss on the state supported business line as a whole is covered by Federal subsidies - specifically from the National Network account.

I can see why one would misunderstand the concept when many state supported lines break even or make money. I think the goal should be for Amtrak to break even on all state supported lines.

lordsigma · Dec 112024

Bostontoallpoints said:
I can see why one would misunderstand the concept when many state supported lines break even or make money. I think the goal should be for Amtrak to break even on all state supported lines.

According to the September year end monthly report for FY24 none of the state supported routes broke even in FY24on a Fully Allocated Cost basiseven after state payments were factored in. Berkshire Flyer and Chicago - St. Louis came the closest. The SSBL lost $251.5 million overall contributing to Amtrak’s total loss of $705.2 million. The overall losses would be covered by Federal subsidies.

Only losses associated with operating Amtrak’s three main business lines can be covered by Federal subsidies. Any ancillary activities (such as competitively operating regional rail services) has to be revenue positive. This actually puts Amtrak at a disadvantage as a commuter operator because they have to be fairly conservative in their pricing to ensure they get a positive return. Private competitors can underbid closer to costs to get their foot in the door.

From management commentary I read in one of their financial reports online Amtrak does anticipate that retaining its remaining commuter contracts and gaining any new ones will be challenging with the growth of HerzogKeolisAlstometc. who have the ability to bid low and risk losing money in order to get the contract. Amtrak cannot take those risks because it cannot by law spend federal subsidies on activities outside the three primary business lines (nor should they.) I would anticipate an eventual exit by Amtrak from those activities.

Bostontoallpoints · Dec 112024

Tom C said:
According to the September year end monthly report for FY24 none of the state supported routes broke even in FY24on a Fully Allocated Cost basiseven after state payments were factored in. Berkshire Flyer and Chicago - St. Louis came the closest. The SSBL lost $251.5 billion overall contributing to Amtrak’s total loss of $705.2 billion. The overall losses would be covered by Federal subsidies.

Only losses associated with operating Amtrak’s three main business lines can be covered by Federal subsidies. Any ancillary activities (such as competitively operating regional rail services) has to be revenue positive. This actually puts Amtrak at a disadvantage as a commuter operator because they have to be fairly conservative in their pricing to ensure they get a positive return. Private competitors can underbid closer to costs to get their foot in the door.

From management commentary I read in one of their financial reports online Amtrak does anticipate that retaining its remaining commuter contracts and gaining any new ones will be challenging with the growth of HerzogKeolisetc. who have the ability to bid low and risk losing money in order to get the contract. Amtrak cannot take those risks because it cannot by law spend federal subsidies on activities outside the three primary business lines.

Prior to 2020 (Covid) that was not entirely the case. In fiscal 20199 routes made money. 9 routes came in under 1 million in losses for the year. Another 7 had losses under 3 million. 6 routes had losses over 3 million. It has always been a mixed bag. Interesting about the commuter contracts. I remember when Amtrak ran Boston commuter trains. They were much better than Keolis. What benefit does a company like Keolis get by operating at a loss? Are they a money laundering outfit?

lordsigma · Dec 112024

Bostontoallpoints said:
Prior to 2020 (Covid) that was not entirely the case. In fiscal 20199 routes made money. 9 routes came in under 1 million in losses for the year. Another 7 had losses under 3 million. 6 routes had losses over 3 million. It has always been a mixed bag. Interesting about the commuter contracts. I remember when Amtrak ran Boston commuter trains. They were much better than Keolis. What benefit does a company like Keolis get by operating at a loss? Are they a money laundering outfit?

Well I’m not saying they’re operating at a loss. I’m saying when bidding on a contract they can be more aggressive than Amtrak would be with low bidding and take more of a risk if they think they can lower costs and find efficiencies over time once they get their foot in the door because it’s their own money (or their shareholders money) they are risking. Amtrak cannot risk federal money so they have to be a bit more conservative in their commuter services pricing. Some of these private contractors are also non union while Amtrak is a union outfit which is also a factor.

railiner · Dec 112024

What happens if one of these low bidder private contractors wins the contractand later goes belly-up?

The agency may be sorry if they don’t stick with Amtrak…

Devil's Advocate · Dec 112024

railiner said:
What happens if one of these low bidder private contractors wins the contractand later goes belly-up?
The agency may be sorry if they don’t stick with Amtrak…

This assumes Amtrak itself survives the next federal budgetwhich could leave it hanging by a thread if it survives at all.

cirdan · Dec 112024

Tom C said:
Amtrak cannot risk federal money so they have to be a bit more conservative in their commuter services pricing. Some of these private contractors are also non union while Amtrak is a union outfit which is also a factor.

You can turn this argument both ways.

You can say that if a private enterprise goes bankruptit is ultimately at the expense of its shareholders and creditors and of nobody elsewhereas if Amtrak runs a greater deficit than allowedit may get a stern rap on the fingers but will probably get bailed out by the taxpayer in the endwhich might make them slightly more willing to take calculated risks.

Bostontoallpoints · Dec 112024

Tom C said:
Well I’m not saying they’re operating at a loss. I’m saying when bidding on a contract they can be more aggressive than Amtrak would be with low bidding and take more of a risk if they think they can lower costs and find efficiencies over time once they get their foot in the door because it’s their own money (or their shareholders money) they are risking. Amtrak cannot risk federal money so they have to be a bit more conservative in their commuter services pricing. Some of these private contractors are also non union while Amtrak is a union outfit which is also a factor.

Are there non-union commuter contracts in the U.S.? I have never heard of one.

lordsigma · Dec 112024

redacted.

Septa9739 · Dec 112024

Tom C said:
According to the September year end monthly report for FY24 none of the state supported routes broke even in FY24on a Fully Allocated Cost basiseven after state payments were factored in. Berkshire Flyer and Chicago - St. Louis came the closest. The SSBL lost $251.5 billion overall contributing to Amtrak’s total loss of $705.2 billion. The overall losses would be covered by Federal subsidies.

Just an editorial note that those losses are millions not billions. Billions would put Amtrak on par with the defense budget.

lordsigma · Dec 112024

Septa9739 said:
Just an editorial note that those losses are millions not billions. Billions would put Amtrak on par with the defense budget.

LOL good catch. Edited to catch. Brain lapse.

NYP · Dec 122024

No- riders that travel any miles on a state-supported route are assigned to the state-supported routenot the NEC. A rider from New York to Lancaster would be counted as a Keystone rider.

Septa9739 · Dec 122024

This is correct. But if I understand properlythe same Keystone train carried a passenger NYP-PHLit gets counted as an NER. If a passenger boards a regional in Charlottesville and gets off at WASit counts as the Roanoke service line. If he boards at Charlottesville bound for New Yorkit credits credited to the Roanoke service line. If he boards at Washingtonhoweverhe gets counted as an NER. That seems to be the only way the numbers make sense historically. Otherwise we would see dips in the NER every time a train gets extended into VAwhich is not the case.

lordsigma · Dec 122024

The Vermonter has a rather complicated one. If you are on the Vermonter you may be assigned to 3 different routes depending on your northern terminus. If the northern terminus of your trip is New Haven or somewhere south of that on the NEC it’s a Northeast Regional tripif the northern terminus is between Meriden and Springfield it’s a New Haven - Springfield line tripif the northern terminus is north of Springfield it is a Vermonter trip.

Septa9739 · Jan 122025

After I posted last month’s updateI realized I didn’t like the way I formatted it. Winners and losers is too complicatedso I came up with a different program. Redyellowgreenand pink. Red is below last year and pre-COVID. Yellow is above pre-COVID. Green is above both. I needed a color to reflect above last yearbut still below pre-COVID. That is going to be pinkbecause I think that situation is more of a red than anything. This is NOVEMBER FY 2025 (CY 2024) Ridership. Percentages are of last year.

Green:

Northeast Regional 979,100 (108%)

Empire South 112,600 (105%)
Borealis 19,400 (first November ever!)
Illini/Saluki 28,300 (110%)
Cascades 81,600 (129%)
Missouri River Runner 15,400 (102%)
Pennsylvanian 20,900 (114%)
Piedmont 41,100 (121%)
Cardinal 8,700 (112%)
City of New Orleans 21,500 (108%)
Texas Eagle 31,800 (112%)
Floridian 33,400 (First November since Carter was president)
Palmetto 34,100 (102%)

Yellow

Heartland Flyer 6,600 (97%)
All FOUR Virginia services 112,100 (95%)
Carolinian 25,600 (80%)
Lakeshore Limited 30,000 (95%)
Crescent 26,900 (92%)
Auto Train 19,400 (97%)

Pink

Lincoln Service 52,700 (104%)
Illinois Service 12,800 (108%)
PacSurf 189,300 (103%)
Capitol Corridor 93,900 (102%)
Adirondack 6,700 (100%)
Silver Meteor 28,100 (108%)
CA Zephyr 27,400 (105%)
SWC 22,600 (101%)
Sunset Limited 7,200 (106%)

Red

Acela Express 261,000 (87%)
Ethan Allen Express 2,700 (36%)
Vermonter 5,900 (65%)
Downeaster 46,200 (96%)
Keystone 102,600 (88%)
Hiawatha 53,000 (91%)
Wolverine 35,700 (99%)
San Joaquin 81,000 (96%)
Blue Water 13,800 (97%)
Pere Marquette 7,200 (96%)
Silver Star 10,600 (31%)
Empire Builder 29,000 (96%)
Capitol Limited 4,000 (34%)
Coast Starlight 31,100 (96%)

GariYaMoshi · Jan 122025

Septa9739 said:
Ethan Allen Express 2,700 (36%)

Was Ethan Allen out of service for a while?

Full disclosure here - I once taught college level statistics. I'm thinking that Capitol Limited and Silver Star both deserve an asterisk given that they weren't in service the full monthlosing their identities when combined for the Floridian.

FY 2025 ridership expansion and fiscal recovery

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