Policy trends in Quebec: The Next 5 Years

QuebecCanada’s vibrant and culturally distinct powerhousestands at a pivotal juncture as it navigates a confluence of trends that will influence its political landscape. We believe Quebec politics will be shaped by intersecting dynamics: the reinforcement of its linguistic and cultural identityan accelerated transition to a decarbonized economythe recalibration of fiscal and labour strategies amid demographic shifts and fiscal pressures and its leadership in emerging sectorslike artificial intelligence. We will explore these topics in more detail. 

1. Identity and Culture 

Quebec’s political debate has been historically defined by its pursuit of affirmation and self-determination as a nation. Under Premier François Legault and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) governmentthe focus has shifted from debating Quebec’s political future to creating more wealth while seeking greater autonomy within Canada. Key issues driving this agenda include: 

Linguistic Policy and Implications  

As the government of the only French-majority society in North Americathe CAQ aims to strengthen its use in the province. The recently passed Bill 96 (2022) has ignited lively discussions over its practicalityespecially for businessesits effects on minority communitiesand its implications for Quebec’s economic competitiveness in a globalized world. Proponentshoweverframe it as a bulwark against linguistic erosionciting declining French usage in society. While the government seeks to safeguard the province’s cultural and linguistic identityongoing policy discussions are expected in the coming years. Amid growing pressure from civil society and opposition parties to preserve and promote the French languagebusinesses may be further impacted. 

Immigration and Identity:  

As Quebec’s demographic landscape becomes increasingly diverseit faces new challenges. Debates about immigration policy will therefore continue to be central to provincial politicsintertwined with efforts to protect and promote the French language and cultural identity. The CAQ government seeks to strike a delicate balance. It wants to address the needs of the labour market through immigrationbut it also wants to ensure that newcomers integrate well into Quebec’s unique linguistic and cultural fabric to maintain French as the common language. The debate surrounding immigration will also be influenced by the ripple effects of Bill 21 (2019)which bans religious symbols for certain public employeesas the government looks to strengthen secularism in the province. 

2. TransportationEnergy and Natural Resources 

Over the next five yearsQuebec will advance its environmental leadershipbuilding on its status as Canada’s leader in renewable energythanks to its abundance of hydroelectricity capacity. As climate change intensifiesthe province faces growing momentum to strengthen sustainability effort across critical sectors like transportationagricultureand constructionreinforcing its role in the global shift towards a greener future.  

Transportation and a Sustainable Economy:

Quebec’s ambitious sustainable mobility policyslated for full implementation by 2030is underpinned by nearly $10 billion in investments. This strategy prioritizes transformative upgrades to public transit and active transportation infrastructure while leading the electrification of personal and commercial vehicles to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 

Paired with Hydro-Québec’s $90–110 billion plan to boost renewable energy capacity by 2035—paving the way to double electricity production by 2050. These initiatives aim to decarbonize its economyparticularly in the transportation and industrial sectorsfuel economic growthand position Quebec as a sustainability leader on the world stage by mid-century.  

Energy and Natural Resources:  

Quebec’s annual $2 billion oil import bill poses a significant barrier to its green transitionparticularly in the transportation sectorwhere fossil fuel reliance undermines the province’s renewable energy leadership. This dependency highlights the pressing need for increased investment in clean alternatives to achieve the goal of reducing petroleum use in transportation by 40% using Quebec’s renewable energy advantage. 

Meanwhilethe surging global demand for natural resources and critical minerals offers Quebec a strategic opportunity to play a pivotal role. With its abundantlow-cost hydroelectric powerstrong mining capabilitiesand rich mineral depositsthe province is well positioned to become a vital supplier in the energy transition. Quebec aims to leverage these assets to create jobsbuild wealthand diversify its export marketswhile embedding itself in the value-added supply chain for high-demand products. These include electric vehicle batteriesclean aluminumand innovative green tech solutions—turning its resource advantage into a catalyst for sustainable growth.  

3. Demographic ShiftsFiscal Policy and Economic Innovation

Quebec’s political agenda over the next five years will need to navigate a dynamic economic landscape shaped by demographic changesgrowing healthcare demandsand innovation. The province’s aging population will increase the need for long-term care and medical servicesprompting a strategic focus on strengthening the healthcare system and optimizing public finances to sustain its robust social programs and services requiring leadership to foster high-growth sectorslike artificial intelligence. 

Healthcare Services:  

By 2030healthcare spending in Quebec is projected to rise to nearly 50% of the provincial budgetdriven by a vibrantaging population—expected to reach 23% over age 65 by 2028. With growing demands for servicesefforts to streamline emergency room wait times and staff shortages are likely to continue to dominate the public discourse. The recent creation of a state-owned corporationSanté Québecwith the mandate to ensure a predictableefficient and sustainable health networkas part of a major health reformis the CAQ’s government responsewith many elements of the reform to be deployed. 

Conversations over privatizing healthcare servicesor favouring hybrid public-private modelsand securing larger federal health transfers will shape discussions on ways to improve care while respecting taxpayers’ financial capacities. This shift signals an opportunity to spark innovative reforms in service delivery and funding that could open doors for businesses in the sector to thrive.   

Labour Shortages: 

With 1.4 million job vacancies projected by 2028Quebec faces a critical labour shortage combined with an aging population. To meet this challengethe province will need to revamp its immigration policies by streamlining processes to attract and retain skilled workers from abroad while aligning newcomer credentials with local needs in a predominantly French-speaking market. The acceleration of investments in automation to bolster economic growth and enhance productivity could also be key to meeting these labour challenges. Howeversuccess depends on balancing these strategies with training programs to upskill existing workersensuring that automation complements rather than displaces the workforcethereby sustaining Quebec’s economic vitality by embracing demographic challenges with confidence. 

AI as a Growth sector: 

While the miningaluminum and the aerospace industry or life science will remain vectors of Quebec’s economic growth and industrial strategywith its highly educated workforceit is rapidly emerging as a key hub in the global technology sectorwith a particular emphasis on artificial intelligence (AI). In the last couple of yearsthe province has made significant strides in AI research and developmentpositioning itself as a leader in this fieldnamely with over $140 million in public investment in recent years.  

Quebec now accounts for 40% of Canada’s AI talent. Montreal’s burgeoning AI hubanchored by innovative players like Element AIthe renowned Mila research instituterepresents a vital economic sector for Quebec and Professor Yoshua Bengio from l’Université de Montréal. This thriving ecosystembolstered by a rich talent pool from local universities and a collaborative tech communitypositions the province as a global contender in artificial intelligence. The technology sector’s potential to drive Quebec’s future economy is significantbut its growth hinges on robust support from targeted government policies and incentives. To that endthe CAQ government is implementing a strategy to position the public administration as an exemplary player in AInotably by drawing on Quebec’s leadership in this area. Howeverethical concerns surrounding AI such as surveillancebiasand privacy will remain prominent in public and policy discussions and development.  

Strategic investments in R&Dtax credits for tech firms and ad initiatives to retain and attract skilled workers will amplify the sector’s impactoffsetting challenges like labour shortages and an aging population to fund public programs and services. If nurtured effectivelythis AI-driven momentum could diversify Quebec’s economic footprintboost productivityand enhance its competitiveness on the world stage.   

Conclusion

Quebec’s political landscape over the next five years will hinge on safeguarding its cultural and linguistic identityaccelerate its environmental ambitions and foster innovation. This approach will propel the province towards a carbon-neutral economy that drives its growth in emerging sectorslike artificial intelligenceto effectively address demographic shifts and fiscal pressures. By doing soQuebec will not only meet the current and future needs of its citizens but also secure a prosperous and sustainable future. 

Source: 

1. The National Assembly of Quebec – https://www.assnat.qc.ca
2. CBC News – Quebec Politics – https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal
3. Coalition Avenir Québec – https://coalitionavenirquebec.org
4. La Presse – Quebec Politics – https://www.lapresse.ca
5. Transporting Quebec Towards Modernity –  https://www.transports.gouv.qc.ca
6. Towards a decarbonized and prosperous Quebec – https://www.hydroquebec.com